Picks and Predictions

Now that you’ve had a few hours to digest the news that this is our last time doing picks and predictions, and you’ve also had some time to consider your own thoughts for each category, let’s do this thing! We’ll start with the definitions: Picks are the personal choices. It’s the slate of books you can […]
Will our crystal ball accurately predict the RealPrintz? (And yes, I know it's really a golden ball.) Image CC BY Pixel2013

Will our crystal ball accurately predict the RealPrintz? (And yes, I know it’s really a golden ball.) Image CC BY Pixel2013

Now that you’ve had a few hours to digest the news that this is our last time doing picks and predictions, and you’ve also had some time to consider your own thoughts for each category, let’s do this thing!

We’ll start with the definitions: Picks are the personal choices. It’s the slate of books you can support as contenders — but more than that, it’s the slate of your heart, the books that both exemplify excellence AND resonate for you. The books you want everyone to read. The ones whose inclusion in the official list would maybe bring tears to your eyes. Then there are predictions: Books you think WILL win, even if you personally would never choose them.

(Please note that this is not in any way like the RealCommittee process. They discuss and vote, vote and discuss; it’s about heads and consensus. But we’re in the speculation business.)

Jump below the fold for details and a quick breakdown of how we’ve done with predictions in the past.

Before we say anything else, we want to acknowledge that the members of the RealCommittee have been working their tails off for over a year. Their choice may not agree with our choices. We may harbor bitter resentment as a result. Next week, we might have some things to say (Like “YAY” or “why” or “what the hell happened to book X?”) — but they still made the right choice. And we can’t wait to find out what it is!

Now, a quick look back at how good, really, is our crystal ball?

Well, individually, we do okay, with Joy slightly more accurate than Sarah and Karyn: last year she pegged three of the five official winners! (Sarah had 2 on her list; Karyn had 1 prediction and 1 pick — Scythe — that went the distance to my surprise and delight.)  For the 2016 award, we whiffed on the honor books but all predicted Bone Gap; in 2015 we didn’t agree much but all averaged 2/5 of the winners; and in 2015, Joy and I both called for Midwinterblood, one of us with more enthusiasm than the other.

Collectively, on the other hand, we are BRILLIANT:

In 2017 although the Pyrite was wrong about the winner, three of our five top books were in the winners circle; in 2016 and 2015 the Pyrite accurately predicted the RealPrintz winner!

So can we do it again, one last time? Let’s try! Sarah, Joy, and Karyn will share Picks and Predictions in the comments, and we hope you all will do the same.

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